Since when is the President more important than The Bachelor?

I am very upset that tonight's episode of How I Met Your Mother was cancelled in order for us to watch the president speak. Plus, I had to wait an hour and a half to watch The Big Bang Theory. What type of country is this? Did I suddenly move to Russia?

(However, getting to see Leonard screw up with Penny by being unable to stop analyzing the moment was something that was well worth waiting to see.)

(Oh, and wish that the reporters at the president's news conference covered all branches of the media spectrum. I want to hear Daphne LeBeau from People magazine ask "Mr. President, do you feel that Bikini Girl was unfairly booted from American Idol last week" or Joyce Deloit from Cat Fancy say "Mr. President, isn't your decision to only get a dog for your girls completely specieist?")

I guess since I am rather light on topics at the moment I will talk about the economy. One interesting thing to note is that in reality the stock market has been pretty much unchanged for the past few months. It has been languishing in the 8000s with a few tests of the 7700 floor (which I predicted back in Spetember). So despite the fact that everyone feels that the economy is getting worse the stock market has at least stabilized. I'm still really worried about what happens if we break through 7700 ( my guess is the next floor would be either 7200 or 6500) but it has been a good sign that we've been able to stay above it.

What is really impacting the economy now, and what makes this different than most of the recent recessions, is that this is really a two stage recession and we are only now hitting the second stage. All of the financial meltdowns of 2008 were really financial in nature. Banks having issues with mortgage backed securities is not something that directly effects regular people. The shock in the credit market and the failures of banks caused the huge drop in the stock market but did not initially impact most people directly. True, everyone became poorer on paper with les in their 401ks and a lower house value but their day to day paycheck was not effected. That is, until phase two began.

Which is where we are now. The companies that actually provide services are now facing with the credit crunch and know that they have to curtail their spending. This means massive layoffs, which started appearing in late 2008 but have been increasing in 2009. Now is when the recession hits the population. This is when people are unemployed and figuring out how to make ends meet. It doesn't get shown in the stock market as much (because the market is always a leading indicator) but it certainly gets shown in the American psyche.

What is next for the economy? I don't think we've seen the bottom yet but I don't feel as though we are too far removed from it. At least from a stock market perspective my fear of a 5000 Dow seems to be a lot less likely. What I expect more than anything is a very slow rebound. The only recent similarity that I can point to is the early 80's. This feels a lot like that recession (in that it is just brutal and no one can really explain why) and it took years to get back into a clearer view of the economy. So expect a few brutal months and then a little light showing at the end of the tunnel.