New game show alert!

(Where tonight we are mourning Cobra Kai’s ouster from the Fantasy Football playoffs and I am left saying something that has never been uttered in the history of Fantasy Football, “If I just would have started Todd Heap I’d be in the championship game.” Oh well, it was a good run while it lasted and with the Colts not even bothering to field a team this week I’d be dead for rights anyway.)

So, while flipping through the channels last night waiting for How I Met Your Mother to come on I came across NBC’s new game show “Deal or No Deal.” This may be one of the most interesting shows I’ve come across in a while for absolutely none of the reasons that its creators originally intended. Here is the breakdown.

Your host is Howie Mandel. Apparently, Howie Mandel is a) bald, b) still able to get work and c) alive. All three of those things were news to me. I’m not sure at what point in your search for hosts that “Let’s give Howie Mandel’s agent a call” comes up, other than it is probably after you’ve talked to Bobcat Goldthwait. Basically, Howie’s job is to be hyper and really intensely into the game, which I’ll describe now.

You are facing a stage in which twenty four models hold twenty four briefcases. In each briefcase is a sign with a dollar figure, ranging from one penny to one million dollars. You pick one (the case and not the model) and that is yours. Then you start off by picking six of the other cases and they show you what was inside (telling you what you didn’t win). At that point “The Bank” (shown so vividly as a guy in a darkened back room with a laptop and a cell phone) offers you X dollars to just walk away now or you can continue onwards. This goes on and on until you either take the money or see what is actually in the briefcase.

Obviously, this isn’t as much a game show as an expected value calculation. In fact, it is a great discussion of probability as a whole. Involving contestants who probably have no clue about how to simply view the game in terms of expected value and either take or leave the offer based on the odds. The interesting thing is that the show seems to play it loose with what they are offering. In one case I saw them make an offer where you should have definitely continued and in another instance you really should have walked away. That is what is called creating drama. Well that and creative editing, given that on the first show the woman’s first five selections of other briefcases consisted entirely of ones in the lower half of the payout range (the one penny and others), which by my calculations would happen 2.2% of the time. That means that this certainly wasn’t the first episode filmed but it was a great one for tv.

Oh, and I have to mention the entire “Choose a briefcase to open” bit. As it goes along and you are down to say ten briefcases to open Howie starts referencing the models by name. Like, “Ok Ashley, show us a low number.” This is a really interesting concept. As a viewer, I have no interest in what the model’s name is. It’s not like she’s famous or anything. Plus, this leads me to believe that Howie Mandel is still able to be on a first name basis with a model, something that makes me question the authenticity of this game even more. On top of that the models all apparently use a combination sorority girl/stripper naming convention. So you have Ashley and Jennifer and Heather along with Montana and Tiffany and Ginger. Actually, that would make for a great side game “Is she a) an actual model, b) a struggling actress or c) a stripper.”

So what we have is an out of work comedian, twenty four somewhat attractive women, and a probability calculation. It’s enough to get my attention of the half hour before How I Met Your Mother comes on.

(This week’s great parts/synchronicities between my life and the show. 1) Barney’s picking up of random foreign chicks. 2) “Some people say mix discs should rise and fall but I think they should be all rise.” And 3) “Well kids it was New Year’s Eve 2005 and if there is one lesson to learn from this story it’s that New Year’s Eve sucks.”)